It seems everyone has a take on what to do with the Blue Jays’ burgeoning pitching ace Aaron Sanchez. He has already blown past the highest number of innings pitched in his career, and that has Jays’ management concerned.
A new version of the plan has been discussed almost daily, either by the Jays’ brass or those “in the know.” The latest decision, announced on Thursday, is that Sanchez will stay in the rotation, for now. The Jays will move to a six-man rotation, and Sanchez will be monitored for signs of fatigue. This is a major departure from what was assumed to be the inevitable plan: moving Sanchez to the bullpen to protect his arm.
The problem with that is, the notion that Sanchez’s arm is in danger is not based on reality, or on actual science.
The theory that a major innings bump makes pitchers more susceptible to injury has been proven to be largely bunk. Outside of a handful of freak injuries, there’s just no data to support the effect first championed by Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci a decade ago.
Innings are, by their nature, an inconsistent and unreliable metric upon which to base any plan of action. A pitcher can throw three pitches in an inning, or 40, or anywhere in between. Should those innings be weighed equally? Of course not.
So what’s the true indicator?
How about Sanchez’s right arm?
He recently said himself that he feels strong, and the numbers back up his words:
- Sanchez has been remarkably efficient in his 21 starts, averaging 99 pitches per start while exceeding six innings pitched in all but three of his starts.
- Sanchez has thrown less than 100 pitches in every July start, and is among the American League leaders in fewest pitches per inning. (Oh yeah, he also leads the AL in ERA.)
- ESPN tracks “stressful innings,” classified as any inning of 30 pitches or more. Sanchez has a grand total of four, all season, which is quite low.
Despite the robust amount of data in favour of keeping Sanchez in the rotation, the Jays appeared on the verge of moving him to the bullpen. That option is still on the table as the team keeps a close eye on their young flamethrower for the telltale signs of arm fatigue, like a drop in velocity or spin rate, or a change in arm angle.
To their credit, Jays’ president and CEO Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins have acknowledged there’s no 100 per cent correct answer. It’s a classic risk-versus-reward proposition, and those never come out exactly the way one hopes.
Perhaps the most promising thing to come out of this saga has been the fact that management met with Sanchez to get his input on his 2016 future.
Here’s hoping Sanchez just pointed to his right arm, got up, and left the room.
Chris Suppa is a freelance writer and photographer based in Toronto. Follow him at @Suppa55 for somewhat-coherent ramblings about the Blue Jays and on Instagram at @chrissuppaphotography.
