The hotly contested race for Eglinton-Lawrence has a new contender in the lead, after a Forum Research Poll on Sept. 22 indicated that Liberal candidate Marco Mendicino had pulled ahead of incumbent Joe Oliver of the Conservative party.
Eglinton-Lawrence was Liberal red for more than three decades, before Conservative finance minister Joe Oliver turned it blue in 2011.
Although Oliver, 75, was in the lead with 41 per cent support in Forum Research’s previous poll in August, he has now dropped to second at 38 per cent. The random sampling of 634 voters showed Marco Mendicino as the new favourite, with 44 per cent, and NDP candidate Andrew Thomson was third at 17 per cent.
The riding is bounded by Highway 401 to the north, Yonge Street to the east, Eglinton Avenue West to the south and railway tracks that run parallel to Caledonia Road to the west.
Nelson Wiseman, director of Canadian studies and professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said achieving victory over the finance minister will be difficult.
The most recent poll indicates Mendicino may be up to the task.
The 42-year-old lawyer and father of two is used to high-profile races, having recently beat out former Conservative Eve Adams (1,127 to 792) after she parachuted into the race for the Liberal nomination with Justin Trudeau’s support earlier this year.
Despite being the underdog in that particular battle, it was Mendicino’s win over Adams for the Liberal nomination that Wiseman said gives the Liberal party a fighting chance in the riding.
Andrew Thomson, the former finance minister of Saskatchewan, moved to Toronto in 2008 and was hand-picked by Tom Mulcair for the NDP nomination.
“It’s going to be a really, really tight race,” said Eglinton-Lawrence Liberal supporter Alex Nanoff.
A centre-left split vote is still a possibility between the riding’s Liberal and NDP voters, which could give Oliver the advantage.
However, Wiseman said he suspects a number of people will vote strategically, likely bolstering Mendicino’s chances instead.
The Conservatives could receive strong support from the Jewish population in the riding, which accounts for 21 per cent of voters (according to the 2011 National House census by Statistics Canada).
“The Conservative party’s discourse on Israel has benefited the Conservatives among large swaths in the Jewish community,” said Wiseman. “It could swing the vote [in Oliver’s favour].”
In the end, Wiseman noted that predicting the outcome of an election is like predicting what the weather will be like on Oct. 19 — almost impossible, and that the determining factor will depend on what the political climate looks like closer to the election date.
