Home sales in the Toronto area declined 4.5 per cent from last year in March, but the average home price rose slightly and points to an upwards trajectory over the rest of 2024, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).

There were 6,560 sales reported through TRREB’s MLS system in March, down from 6,868 in March of 2023. However, the board noted that the decline in sales is partially due to the Good Friday statutory holiday falling in March this year, rather than April last year.

Despite the dip in March, the first quarter of 2024 ended with sales up 11.2 per cent year-over-year — and new listings were up 15.1 per cent. TRREB president Jennifer Pearce noted that the spike in new listings points to homeowners anticipating improvements in the market for spring.

“More buyers have adjusted to the higher interest rate environment. Assuming we benefit from lower borrowing costs in the near future, sales will increase further, new listings will be absorbed, and tighter market conditions will push selling prices higher,” she said.

There’s been slight upwards pressure on prices so far — the average selling price in the GTA increased 1.3 per cent year-over-year to $1,121,615, and TRREB expects price growth to accelerate in the spring and even further toward the end of the year. Chief market analyst at TRREB, Jason Mercer, said the prices will grow “as sales growth catches up with listings growth and sellers’ market conditions start to emerge in many neighbourhoods. Lower borrowing costs in the months ahead will help fuel increased demand for ownership housing.”

In March, the decline in sales seemed to be mostly driven by the condo market — sales decreased by 12.8 per cent year-over-year in the GTA. The Toronto market decreased by 15.5 per cent, compared to a more modest decline by 7.5 per cent in the 905.

Semi-detached home sales fared especially well in Toronto, where they increased by 10.4 per cent year-over-year.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio was 50 per cent in March, pointing to a balanced market (anything above 60 per cent is considered a sellers’ market and below 40 per cent is a buyers’ market).

But according to chief market analyst at TRREB, Jason Mercer, that might not be for long. As prices continue to grow, he said that “sales growth [will catch] up with listings growth and sellers’ market conditions [will] start to emerge in many neighbourhoods. Lower borrowing costs in the months ahead will help fuel increased demand for ownership housing.”