It turns out the Bank of Canada’s June interest rate cut wasn’t enough to kickstart homebuyer demand in Toronto and across the country this spring — but that doesn’t mean home price growth isn’t in the cards. A new report by Royal LePage on the second quarter housing market found that Toronto saw a slower-than-normal spring market, yet the price forecast maintains a 10 per cent increase in the fourth quarter.

The report noted that home prices in the second quarter in the GTA were flat or showing modest decreases, unlike the 2023 response to the Bank of Canada’s first rate hold, where prices and sales ramped up quickly.

“[But] the trendline from the start of 2024 shows moderate, incremental gains. Despite a marked slowdown in activity, home prices are not trending downward, as most sellers have demonstrated they have the ability to hold out for the right buyer,” Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer at Royal LePage, said. 

Overall, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA increased 0.9 per cent year over year to $1,190,600 in the second quarter of 2024. Compared to the first quarter, the aggregate price rose 1.1 per cent.

However, in the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased by 0.5 per cent year over year to $1,215,300, while it rose 4.8 per cent quarter over quarter. 

In the GTA, both single-family detached homes and condominiums saw modest price increases year over year — 1.3 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively. But in the city of Toronto, both housing types saw a slight decline. The median price of a single-family detached home declined 0.9 per cent year over year to $1,763,200, and the median price of a condominium decreased 2.4 per cent to $711,500.

But according to Royal LePage’s price forecast, all that is about to change in the last two quarters of 2024 — by the end of the year, the GTA is set to see a 10 per cent increase in price, the greatest price appreciation across all major markets in Canada.

This is consistent with their earlier national update in April, despite unseasonably low sales activity in the GTA this spring. “Almost all of the price appreciation we’ve seen year to date occurred in the first quarter, followed by a virtual flatline. New listings are up double digits compared to this time last year, and active listings are the highest they’ve been in more than a decade,” Yolevski stated. 

She noted that this is a positive for buyers waiting on the sidelines, who will have plenty of choice when they choose to re-enter the market. “The region has been starved for housing inventory for some time. Once consumers regain the confidence to re-enter the market – likely following several more interest rate cuts – this boost in supply will be a welcome improvement to market conditions.”