Today, Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott announced that she would not run in the upcoming Ontario election scheduled for June 2, 2022, and she’s not alone.

I recently shared with Premier Ford I will not be seeking re-election in June. Until then, I will continue what has been the honour of a lifetime to support our gov’t as Minister of Health.

To the people of Newmarket-Aurora, thank you for giving me the opportunity to serve you. pic.twitter.com/VH5EbCHh2c

— Christine Elliott (@celliottability) March 4, 2022

Those who watch enough lead-ups to provincial and federal elections understand that when prominent elected officials in the governing party announce they are no longer going to run, it’s never a good sign. And that seems to be what is happening so far in advance of the Ontario election. Earlier this year, another prominent member of Premier Doug Ford’s cabinet, Long-Term Care Minister Rod Phillips, also said he was resigning his seat.

And although there are many other incumbent Ontario PC MPPs to swing through the exit door such as four-timer Jeff Yurek, the pair of cabinet ministers in Elliott and Phillips are easily the most high profile departures  — both were front and centre during the COVID-19 pandemic, and not always for the best reasons.

Would this lead anyone to believe that people are getting out while the getting is good, as they say? Maybe. It’s not a sign that all is well in Ford Nation, that’s for sure.

Although, Ford is already spinning the news as a positive.

Asked about the fact that many of his MPPs aren’t running for re-election, Premier Doug Ford said this new slate of candidates is better than the @OntarioPCParty team in 2018 (which he frequently called a bunch of all stars). #onpoli pic.twitter.com/ky66oCT55z

— Mike Crawley (@CBCQueensPark) March 4, 2022

Then again, the same day Elliott announced the news via social media that she was done, a Leger Poll revealed that the Ontario PC Party held a firm lead as 39 percent of those polled signalled their voter intention. In second place, the Liberals and NDP were tied at 27 percent with the Ontario Geen Party at three percent.

As long as parties to the left split votes, Ford still has a clear path to maintaining power in Ontario. But, if he cannot demonstrate he has a large and competent team behind him, which was a huge key to victory last time around, it might be more difficult to garner votes from the middle of the political spectrum, especially in the Toronto area, where the election will be won or lost.

For example, in York Centre, MPP Roman Baber sits as an independent after being turfed from the Ontario PCs over a vaccination policy controversy. Will voters in this area trust another Ontario PC candidate after Baber? Scarborough MPP Raymond Cho is 85, and popular, but who knows if he will run again. In Eglinton-Lawrence MPP Robin Martin won the seat for the PCs by defeating Liberal incumbent Mike Colle by less than a thousand votes. Colle is now a city councillor in the area, and this will certainly be another bellwether riding that the PCs will need to work very hard to keep.

It’s early days. Incumbents are still deciding whether or not to run again in the Ontario election, and parties are holding nomination meetings for many ridings.

Despite some big election-scented announcements in the last week including cutting vehicle plate renewal fees and tolls on some highways, news of who is not running still generated tremendous attention. And it wasn’t good news for the Ontario PCs.

Stay tuned.