In 2011, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives made significant inroads in Toronto, helping propel him to a majority government. If polls are any indication, times have changed. Herewith, a look at five bellwether races that could decide the next prime minister on Oct. 19. Political insider and author Warren Kinsella has been enlisted to help separate the wheat from the chaff.
FINANCE MINISTER'S 'HOOD
Eglinton-lawrence
This riding has been a federal riding since 1979. At city hall, the riding is represented by Josh Colle and Christin Carmichael Greb. Eglinton-Lawrence includes the neighbourhoods of North Toronto, Lawrence Park, Bedford Park and Lytton Park amongst others. The Liberal party had dominated the riding, with former MP Joe Volpe winning an incredible seven federal elections between 1988 and 2011 before he was finally defeated by current MP Joe Oliver.
The candidates
The incumbent, Joe Oliver, defeated Joe Volpe by just over 3,000 votes in 2011 and since then has taken on the role of finance minister in Stephen Harper’s cabinet. Translation: He’s a power-broker. Born and raised in Montreal, Oliver got into politics late after a lengthy career as an investment banker. He lost to Volpe in 2008 before taking the seat in 2011. He’ll be facing off against lawyer-turned-politician Marco Mendicino who caused quite a stir in the Liberal nomination race by defeating Justin Trudeau’s hand-picked candidate, Eve Adams.
What does Warren think?
Marco Mendicino was always the best candidate in this formerly Liberal riding. Justin Trudeau, however, giddily endorsed Eve Adams instead — and infuriated Liberals from coast-to-coast. The eventual repudiation of former Tory MP Adams was a repudiation of Trudeau, too. Unfortunately for Trudeau, the controversy is unlikely to be forgotten anytime soon — which gives Joe Oliver a boost. Finance ministers are rarely beaten in general elections, but Marco will likely give Joe a run for his money. He’s got an impressive team on the ground.
CAN BENNETT WIN SEVENTH?
Toronto-St. Paul’s
This riding first sent a member of Parliament to Ottawa in 1935. Municipally, the riding is represented at city hall by Joe Mihevc to the west, and Josh Matlow to the east. It has only been represented by three opposition MPs, and is considered a bellwether riding. It contains many upscale, central neighbourhoods such as Forest Hill, Cedarvale, South Hill, Hillcrest and Wychwood. It has been held by the Liberal party since 1993 when Barry Campbell was elected and served one term as the member of Parliament.
The candidates
Carolyn Bennett has won the riding in the last six federal elections. Bennett grew up in the area, attending Havergal College for high school and the University of Toronto for medicine before working as a physician at Wellesley and Women’s College hospitals. She first ran in the riding for the Ontario Liberal party in 1995 and lost. In 1997, she won the federal seat by a whopping 15,000 votes and hasn’t looked back. Challenging her in the upcoming election for the New Democratic Party will be Noah Richler, a writer and the son of acclaimed Canadian novelist Mordecai Richler. Richler has not previously run for elected office.
What does Warren think?
Writers seldom make a happy transition to political life (e.g., Messrs. Dion, Ignatieff), but Richler carries a famous surname. Carolyn Bennett may not be well-loved, but she has name recognition to spare. That, plus a lot of on-the-ground experience, will make this a big challenge for Richler. My prediction: He’ll say something controversial. Controversy is great for writers but not so much for aspiring politicians.
MEDIA BROUHAHA
University-Rosedale
This riding is one of many new ridings to be contested in the October 2015 election. The area includes part of the Toronto Centre and Trinity-Spadina ridings and has such diverse neighbourhoods such as Rosedale, Yorkville, the Annex and Little Italy. Trinity-Spadina has long been a left-leaning riding, electing equal measures of NDP and Liberal candidates including former NDP MP Olivia Chow and current Liberal MP Adam Vaughan. Toronto Centre had been held for the past couple decades by the Liberals but has a strong history of conservatism.
The candidates
This is shaping up to be a two-person race between Jennifer Hollett, representing the NDP, and the Liberal candidate, Chrystia Freeland. Both are public figures with media backgrounds. Hollett was formerly a MuchMusic VJ before wading into political activism. Freeland is a longtime journalist who served as deputy editor of the Globe and Mail, in addition to other positions, and has appeared on Real Time with Bill Maher on numerous occasions.
What does Warren think?
Even Liberals refer to Chrystia Freeland as “Chrystia Freeloader” — as in, she was shoehorned into the riding by Justin Trudeau because his “senior strategist,” Gerald Butts, liked what Freeloader wrote in the op-ed pages of the New York Times. And therein lies the problem: the error-prone Liberal MP seems more interested in being seen stateside than in her own riding. Newcomer Hollett is likeable, knows retail, taught at Harvard (but doesn’t brag about it) and is a social media guru. She’s the one to beat, not Freeland.
SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST
The Scarborough Southwest riding has only three declared candidates at this point as incumbent Dan Harris matches up against another one of Justin Trudeau’s star candidates — former Toronto police chief Bill Blair. Harris, 36, grew up in the east end of Toronto and first ran for public office in 2000. Blair was born and raised in Scarborough. And an interesting third candidate has emerged, Green Party candidate Tommy Taylor, who was detained during the G20 arrests, which may plague Blair on the campaign trail.
What does Warren think?
Ah, yes, Bill Blair: Defended carding. Defended the gutting of civil liberties at the G20. Defended being asleep at the switch during Rob Ford’s serial abuses. Why — why, why, why — would Justin Trudeau consider this human shrapnel machine a catch? By endorsing Blair, Trudeau again exposed his “open nomination” promise as a farce — and angered Liberals throughout the GTA. Harris was always hard to beat — and with Blair as his opponent, that’s even more true, now.
SPADINA–FORT YORK
This new riding has three declared candidates, but despite the best intentions of Conservative party candidate Sabrina Zuniga, it looks to be a two-person race between current MP for Trinity-Spadina Adam Vaughan and former MP and failed mayoral candidate Olivia Chow. This one should
be interesting.
What does Warren think?
Take it from me, I know: Olivia Chow was an unmitigated disaster in her run in the Toronto mayoral race. She didn’t listen to anyone’s advice. She was completely unstrategic, and she couldn’t communicate her way out of a paper bag. Don’t believe it? Take a look at the numbers: she finished behind Doug Ford — way behind. Ouch. Vaughan’s Liberals are on the wane, but the chippy former broadcaster has a personal brand that should push him over the top. A battle for the ages, this one.
